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Estimating Accuracy and Variance Control

Budgeting is not static. Once execution begins, actual costs start to deviate from the planned values — hence, variance tracking becomes essential.

1. Accuracy Levels by Project Stage

 Accuracy

2. Causes of Variance

  • Scope changes or rework
  • Market rate fluctuations
  • Poor productivity or labor inefficiency
  • Weather delays or unforeseen conditions
  • Design errors or material shortages

3. Variance Control Techniques

  • Regular Cost Reporting: Monthly budget vs. actual review.
  • Trend Analysis: Tracking cumulative deviation patterns.
  • Forecast at Completion (FAC): Predicting total project cost using real data.
EAC = BAC​ / CPI

(EAC = Estimate at Completion, BAC = Budget at Completion)

  • Change Management: All cost deviations must be approved and documented.
  • Cash Flow Monitoring: Ensure expenditure aligns with planned disbursements.

4. Continuous Improvement

Post-project review helps improve future estimate accuracy through historical data benchmarking and lessons learned.

Variance control is not about blame — it’s about early detection and corrective action.

Module Summary

  • A budget is the financial expression of project scope and schedule.
  • Linking cost, time, and work packages provides measurable control.
  • Economic feasibility ensures financial sustainability through NPV and IRR.
  • Owners focus on lifecycle value, while contractors focus on execution efficiency.

Continuous variance tracking and reporting maintain budget discipline.